CYCLONE ARNAB RACES TOWARDS ANDHRA COAST: VERY SEVERE STORM FORECAST, WINDS OF 140 KM/H AND EXTREME RAINFALL THREATEN EASTERN INDIA
October 26, 2026
Cyclone Arnab has intensified over the Bay of Bengal and is forecast to develop into a very severe cyclonic storm before making landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast on the morning of Wednesday, October 28, prompting heightened vigilance across the eastern coastline. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of destructive winds, heavy to extremely heavy rainfall and potentially dangerous conditions across coastal districts as the system advances towards the mainland.
In its latest bulletin issued on Monday, October 26, the IMD confirmed that the deep depression over the Bay of Bengal had intensified into Cyclone Arnab. The system was centred over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal at 5.30 am and had moved westwards at approximately 15 kilometres per hour during the preceding six hours.
Meteorologists expect the cyclone to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm by Monday night before intensifying further into a very severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday, October 27. Its projected trajectory indicates that it will subsequently turn northwestwards towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, where landfall is expected between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by Wednesday morning.
At landfall, the storm could produce sustained wind speeds of 115–125 kilometres per hour, with gusts reaching 140 kilometres per hour. Such conditions pose significant risks to vulnerable structures, electricity infrastructure, transportation networks, agricultural areas and communities living in exposed coastal locations.
CYCLONE INTENSIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE MAINLAND
The system has developed through successive stages over the Bay of Bengal, progressing from a low-pressure area to a depression, then a deep depression and subsequently a cyclonic storm. The latest forecast indicates further intensification as it moves over the west-central Bay.
At the time of the Monday morning bulletin, the system was approximately 590 kilometres northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman Islands, 650 kilometres east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 730 kilometres east-southeast of Kakinada, 830 kilometres east of Machilipatnam and 910 kilometres east of Bapatla.
Its expected west-northwestward and subsequent northwestward movement places the Andhra Pradesh coast directly within the forecast impact zone. The precise distribution of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will depend on the cyclone's final track, intensity and structure as it approaches land.
The IMD's forecast of very severe cyclonic storm intensity underlines the seriousness of the developing situation. However, actual conditions may vary between districts, and residents are being advised to follow updated official bulletins rather than rely solely on the projected landfall point.
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH
Rainfall is expected to become one of the principal hazards associated with Cyclone Arnab. The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall, with extremely heavy precipitation possible at isolated places across coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on October 27 and 28. Further heavy rainfall is likely in parts of the region on October 29.
Intense rainfall over a short period can overwhelm drainage systems, inundate low-lying settlements, disrupt road connectivity and damage crops. In areas where rivers, streams and drainage channels are already carrying substantial water, additional precipitation can increase the risk of localised flooding.
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are also likely at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema. Residents should avoid exposed locations during thunderstorms and remain alert to official warnings concerning flooding, strong winds and travel disruptions.
The combination of heavy rain and powerful winds could make conditions particularly dangerous for people living in temporary structures or near vulnerable trees, utility poles and coastal infrastructure.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITIES URGE VIGILANCE
The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority has warned that the next three days will be crucial as the cyclone approaches the coast.
Its managing director, Prakhar Jain, urged residents to remain alert, observe safety precautions and comply with official advisories. He cautioned people against becoming complacent while the system continues to intensify over the Bay of Bengal.
Preparations in cyclone-prone areas are particularly important because the effects of a severe storm extend beyond the immediate period of landfall. Strong winds can damage power lines and communication infrastructure, while heavy rainfall may obstruct roads and delay emergency services. Coastal communities may also face dangerous sea conditions before the centre of the cyclone reaches land.
Residents in vulnerable areas should keep track of evacuation instructions, identify nearby designated shelters and secure essential documents and supplies. People should avoid damaged buildings, stay away from fallen electrical wires and refrain from entering flooded roads or underpasses.
Fishermen and other maritime workers should strictly follow the IMD's warnings and restrictions concerning sea conditions. The approach of a cyclone can make offshore conditions dangerous well before landfall, and returning to shore after conditions deteriorate may become difficult.
ANDHRA COAST AND YANAM FACE THE GREATEST IMMEDIATE RISK
The forecast landfall corridor between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam places several coastal districts at risk from the cyclone's strongest winds and heaviest rainfall. Yanam, a coastal enclave of the Union territory of Puducherry, is also included in the warning area.
The extent of damage will depend on the cyclone's final intensity, the duration of destructive winds, the amount of rainfall and the effectiveness of preparedness measures. Even areas outside the direct landfall corridor may experience dangerous weather as the system's rain bands and wind field extend beyond its centre.
The immediate priorities for authorities include communicating timely warnings, preparing shelters, protecting vulnerable populations and ensuring that emergency teams can respond rapidly to incidents. The restoration of electricity, communications and road access may also become important if infrastructure is damaged.
The evolving forecast makes coordination among meteorological agencies, district administrations, disaster-response teams and local communities essential.
BENGAL PREPARES FOR RAIN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD
Although Kolkata is not expected to experience the full force of Cyclone Arnab, the system is likely to influence weather across West Bengal. The IMD has forecast light to moderate rain in Kolkata between October 28 and 30, accompanied by moderate gusts of wind.
Several districts of southern West Bengal, including South 24-Parganas, East Midnapore, West Midnapore, Jhargram, Bankura and Purulia, are expected to receive heavier rainfall. Parts of north Bengal, including Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Kalimpong and Alipurduar, may also experience heavy rain between October 29 and 31.
The outer cloud bands of a large cyclone can influence weather far from its landfall location. Consequently, Kolkata's relative distance from the projected landfall does not mean that the city will remain entirely unaffected.
Airport authorities in Kolkata have been monitoring the weather system in coordination with the meteorological department. The airport was expected to remain operational according to the information available on Monday, although flights to and from destinations closer to the cyclone, including Visakhapatnam, could face disruption.
South Eastern Railway reported no cancellations originating from Bengal at that stage, while the operational situation in railway divisions closer to the storm remained dependent on its eventual impact.
THE CRITICAL HOURS AHEAD
Cyclone Arnab's expected intensification and Wednesday morning landfall have placed the eastern coast under heightened weather scrutiny. The forecast of sustained winds reaching 115–125 kilometres per hour, gusting to 140 kilometres per hour, combined with the threat of extremely heavy rainfall, makes preparedness essential for communities across the affected region.
For Andhra Pradesh, the immediate challenge is to minimise casualties and disruption through timely warnings, evacuation where required and coordinated emergency planning. For neighbouring Odisha and West Bengal, continued monitoring will be necessary as the cyclone's movement determines the extent of rainfall and wind-related effects.
The coming days will establish how closely the storm follows its projected path and how much further it intensifies before crossing the coast. Until then, official forecasts and district-level instructions remain the most reliable guide for residents and travellers.
Cyclone Arnab is approaching a critical stage in its development. The combination of powerful winds, intense rainfall and potentially hazardous coastal conditions makes the period leading up to October 28 particularly important. The effectiveness of preparedness measures, public cooperation and emergency response will play a decisive role in limiting the storm's human and material consequences.
