EL NIÑO WEIGHS ON INDIA’S MONSOON AS SEASONAL RAINFALL FALLS TO DECADE LOW

September 30, 2026

India has recorded its weakest monsoon in more than a decade, with rainfall during the June–September 2026 season falling 12.6 per cent below the long-term average, according to a senior official of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The rainfall shortfall has been attributed largely to the influence of the El Niño weather pattern, which is associated with changes in atmospheric circulation and reduced monsoon precipitation across parts of the Indian subcontinent. The deficit marks a significant departure from the rainfall levels typically expected during the country’s principal rainy season.

The monsoon is vital to India’s agricultural economy, as a substantial proportion of farmland depends on seasonal rainfall for irrigation. Reduced precipitation can affect crop yields, soil moisture, reservoir levels and rural livelihoods, particularly in regions that have experienced prolonged rainfall deficiencies.

The shortfall has also raised concerns about water availability and the potential economic consequences of weaker agricultural output. A sustained rainfall deficit can increase pressure on irrigation systems and groundwater resources, while potentially affecting food supplies and rural demand.

The impact of the deficient monsoon is likely to vary across states and agricultural regions, depending on local rainfall patterns, irrigation access and existing water reserves. The national deficit alone does not reflect the extent of rainfall shortages or their consequences in individual areas.

The 2026 monsoon outcome places renewed attention on India’s vulnerability to changing climate patterns and the importance of effective water management, agricultural preparedness and monitoring of seasonal weather conditions.