EL NINO THREATENS INDIA'S NOVEMBER CLIMATE AS IMD WARNS OF RISING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL DEFICIT

October 31, 2026

India is likely to experience above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country during November 2026, according to the monthly outlook released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday, October 31. The forecast indicates that maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most regions, while minimum temperatures are also likely to exceed seasonal averages in much of the country. However, several areas of central and eastern India may experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures, with some Himalayan foothill regions also expected to record normal or below-normal maximum temperatures.

The weather agency has projected below-normal rainfall across most parts of India, although certain areas of central, northwestern and northeastern India may receive normal to above-normal precipitation. Overall, the country is expected to receive approximately 77 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during November. The November LPA for the country, calculated using rainfall records from 1971 to 2020, stands at approximately 29.7 mm. South Peninsular India is also forecast to receive around 77 per cent of its regional LPA, which is approximately 118.7 mm.

The IMD has identified very strong El Niño conditions over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean as an important climate factor influencing the developing weather pattern. Forecasts generated through the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System and other global climate models indicate that these conditions are likely to persist during November and December. El Niño, a phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), involves abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, accompanied by changes in atmospheric circulation. Such conditions can influence global weather systems, disrupt conventional rainfall patterns and contribute to elevated temperatures in several regions.

The agency has warned that strong El Niño conditions can produce contrasting climatic consequences across different geographical regions, including drought in some areas, excessive rainfall and flooding in others, alongside increased heat. The November outlook therefore points towards a potentially warmer and drier month for much of India, although regional variations in temperature and precipitation are expected.