GAZA’S CEASEFIRE BECOMES A YEAR-LONG DEADLOCK AS ISRAELI STRIKES CONTINUE AND DISARMAMENT TALKS STALL
October 10, 2026
One year after a ceasefire agreement brokered by US President Donald Trump and Arab allies raised hopes of ending the Gaza war, the devastated Palestinian territory remains trapped in a cycle of violence, political uncertainty and humanitarian suffering. More than 1,400 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since the truce took effect, while disagreements over Hamas’s disarmament, Israeli military withdrawal and the formation of a new Palestinian administration have stalled the agreement’s wider implementation.
The ceasefire halted major military operations, secured the release of all remaining hostages taken during Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack and increased humanitarian access to Gaza. However, the agreement’s broader objectives remain largely unfulfilled. Much of the territory lies in ruins, reconstruction has barely begun, and plans for an international stabilisation force and a new Palestinian governing administration have failed to materialise.
For Gaza’s approximately two million residents, the prolonged stalemate has brought little prospect of returning to normal life. Many remain displaced in overcrowded tent camps, damaged buildings or makeshift shelters constructed from the rubble of their former homes. Families continue to face uncertainty over their safety, access to assistance and the possibility of returning to their neighbourhoods.
The original 20-point agreement envisaged Hamas transferring administrative authority to a committee of Palestinian technocrats vetted by a Board of Peace chaired by Trump. Although Hamas formally dissolved its government in July, its civil service remained in place, and the organisation continued to exercise dominant influence over areas not controlled by Israeli forces. Israel, meanwhile, has prevented the proposed Palestinian administration from entering Gaza through Egypt.
The planned international stabilisation force has also failed to take shape. Although its formation was announced in February, participating countries have yet to deploy the force. Indonesia, which had pledged the largest contingent of 8,000 soldiers, put its deployment plans on hold last spring as international attention shifted towards the war involving Iran.
Meanwhile, Israel has continued to expand its control over parts of Gaza rather than complete the withdrawal envisaged under the ceasefire framework. Israeli forces have pushed the so-called Yellow Line of Control westward towards the Mediterranean coast and carried out repeated strikes against individuals they accuse of violating the truce, approaching the demarcation line or participating in the October 7 attack. Such operations have also resulted in civilian deaths.
According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began. The ministry operates under the Hamas-run administration, maintains detailed casualty records and does not distinguish between civilians and militants in its overall toll. Women and children account for approximately half of the reported deaths. Five Israeli soldiers have also been killed in Gaza since the ceasefire took effect.
The central obstacle to further progress remains the dispute over Hamas’s disarmament. In July, Trump announced a proposed arrangement under which the group would surrender its weapons gradually, according to a defined timetable linked to phased Israeli withdrawal. Hamas confirmed for the first time that it had agreed to disarm, but made its commitment conditional on Israel halting its strikes and withdrawing from Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu subsequently rejected the proposed sequence of steps, declaring that Israel would not withdraw from any part of Gaza until Hamas had been completely disarmed. His position effectively blocked progress towards the next phase of the ceasefire and exposed a rare disagreement between Netanyahu and Trump, one of his most important international allies.
The dispute also carries significant domestic political implications for Netanyahu. Ahead of Israel’s October 27 elections, he faces criticism over the security and intelligence failures that preceded the October 7 attack, with opponents accusing him of having been insufficiently forceful towards Hamas. These pressures have narrowed his political room for compromise on Gaza, and the formation of a new government could take months after the election.
The stalemate has left the ceasefire agreement suspended between a reduction in large-scale fighting and the continuing reality of deadly strikes, displacement and destruction. Although the release of hostages represented a major achievement, the absence of an agreed timetable for disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, Palestinian administration and international security arrangements has prevented the agreement from becoming a durable political settlement.
A year after the truce was announced, Gaza remains far from reconstruction or lasting peace. The central challenge is no longer merely securing a pause in fighting, but reconciling fundamentally different demands over security, sovereignty and political authority. Until those issues are resolved, the ceasefire is likely to remain fragile, leaving Palestinian civilians exposed to continued violence and an uncertain future.
