GLOBAL FOOD BILLS FACE A PROLONGED SQUEEZE AS CONFLICT AND EL NIÑO THREATEN SUPPLIES THROUGH 2027

October 19, 2026

NEW DELHI, OCTOBER 19: Global food inflation is expected to remain under upward pressure through 2027 as geopolitical conflicts and the threat of an El Niño weather pattern disrupt agricultural production and supply chains, raising concerns over the affordability of essential food items.

War-related disruptions can increase the cost of fuel, fertilisers, transportation and other agricultural inputs, making food production and distribution more expensive. Interruptions to shipping routes and international trade can further complicate supplies, particularly for countries that depend heavily on imported food commodities or agricultural inputs.

The potential return of El Niño adds another layer of uncertainty. The climate phenomenon can alter rainfall patterns and increase the likelihood of droughts or excessive heat in some agricultural regions, affecting crop yields and livestock production. If adverse weather coincides with existing supply disruptions, pressure on global food markets could intensify.

The combined risks pose challenges for governments attempting to control inflation while ensuring reliable access to essential commodities. Higher food prices can disproportionately affect lower-income households, which typically spend a larger share of their earnings on food.

The outlook highlights the vulnerability of food markets to both geopolitical and climatic shocks. The extent of future price increases will depend on the severity of supply disruptions, weather conditions, agricultural output and the ability of producers and governments to respond.

With risks extending into 2027, food affordability is likely to remain a major concern for households, policymakers and international markets.