ISRAEL’S ELECTION DEADLOCK: NETANYAHU’S LIKUD EMERGES AS LARGEST PARTY, BUT NO BLOC SECURES A CLEAR PATH TO POWER

October 28, 2026

JERUSALEM, OCTOBER 28, 2026 — Israel’s parliamentary election has produced an inconclusive political verdict, with exit polls projecting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party as the largest individual party while indicating that neither his governing bloc nor the opposition has secured the parliamentary numbers required to form a majority government. The outcome threatens to prolong political uncertainty in a country already confronting deep divisions over security, leadership and the consequences of the wars that have reshaped the Middle East.

Projections released by Israel’s three major television broadcasters—Channel 12, Channel 13 and public broadcaster Kan—placed Netanyahu’s Likud at approximately 24 to 25 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The opposition party Yashar, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, was projected to secure between 21 and 23 seats. Despite Likud’s lead in the individual-party contest, the broader balance of parliamentary support remained unfavourable to a straightforward continuation of Netanyahu’s coalition.

The exit polls estimated that parties aligned with Netanyahu would collectively secure around 50 seats, while the principal opposition bloc could obtain approximately 52 to 53. Neither grouping would approach the 61 seats necessary for a parliamentary majority. Arab-led parties were projected to win a combined 17 to 18 seats, potentially placing them in a pivotal position during negotiations over the formation of the next government.

A separate projection by broadcaster i24NEWS offered a somewhat different picture, giving Netanyahu’s bloc 55 seats and the opposition grouping 49. The discrepancy underlined the provisional nature of exit polls and the possibility that the final distribution of seats could differ from the initial estimates.

The results represent a significant test for Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, whose leadership has been a defining issue of the campaign. The election was widely viewed as a referendum on his handling of national security, the aftermath of the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the conflicts that followed. His supporters emphasised military operations and national security, while opponents questioned his leadership and the political direction of the country.

Turnout reached 77.7 per cent, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee, marking the highest participation rate since 1999. The figure suggested substantial public engagement in an election whose outcome could determine the country’s political direction for the coming years.

For Netanyahu, the distinction between leading the largest party and commanding a parliamentary majority is crucial. Israel’s proportional electoral system means that governments are formed through agreements among multiple parties rather than by the largest party automatically taking office. Likud’s projected strength therefore does not, by itself, guarantee Netanyahu another term as prime minister.

Eisenkot’s opposition grouping faces a comparable challenge. Although the exit polls placed it ahead of Netanyahu’s bloc in the projections of the three major broadcasters, its constituent parties would still need additional parliamentary support to establish a stable government. Their differences over policy and political priorities could complicate negotiations even if they agree on opposing Netanyahu’s continuation in office.

Arab-led parties could become particularly consequential. Their projected representation would give them potential influence over confidence votes, coalition negotiations or the formation of a minority government. However, their relationship with the principal Jewish-led opposition parties remains complicated, and both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out a formal governing partnership with Arab-led parties. Whether some form of external support or abstention could facilitate an alternative government remains uncertain.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s opposition alliance, B’Yachad, was projected to win approximately 12 to 14 seats, depending on the broadcaster. The left-leaning Democrats, led by Yair Golan, were projected to secure around nine to ten seats. These parties could become important participants in negotiations, although their willingness to support a particular coalition would depend on the terms offered and the composition of the proposed government.

Netanyahu addressed supporters after the exit polls were released, maintaining a defiant tone as the political landscape became clearer. Eisenkot, speaking to his supporters in Tel Aviv, warned against using Israel’s security situation for political purposes and argued that the country’s institutions served the state rather than any individual leader. Their contrasting messages reflected the central struggle of the election: whether Netanyahu could retain power despite the apparent weakening of his coalition or whether his opponents could convert their combined support into a viable governing arrangement.

The election also took place against a background of sustained security concerns. The October 7 attacks and subsequent regional conflicts have profoundly affected Israeli politics, making questions of military strategy, national security and political accountability central to public debate. The competing blocs have presented different interpretations of the government’s record and the measures needed to protect the country, while voters have weighed those arguments alongside domestic political concerns.

The official count, rather than the exit polls, will determine the final distribution of seats. Exit polls are estimates based on surveys of voters after they cast their ballots and may differ from the eventual results. The Central Elections Committee has begun counting the votes, and the emerging figures could alter the balance between the competing political camps.

Once the final results are established, President Isaac Herzog will consult political parties before deciding whom to task with forming a government. Under Israel’s parliamentary system, the candidate judged most likely to assemble a coalition receives an opportunity to negotiate with other parties. The process can take weeks, and failure to secure sufficient support could lead to another attempt by a different candidate or, ultimately, another election.

A prolonged deadlock would leave Netanyahu heading a caretaker government while negotiations continued, potentially limiting the scope for major policy decisions. Israel has experienced repeated periods of coalition instability in recent years, including five elections between 2019 and 2022, making the prospect of another extended political impasse a familiar but consequential possibility.

The emerging result therefore presents two distinct realities. Likud appears positioned to remain the largest party in parliament, but the broader coalition arithmetic may prevent Netanyahu from assembling a majority. Meanwhile, the opposition’s projected advantage does not automatically translate into the ability to govern.

Israel’s next government will depend on negotiations among parties whose positions on security, religion, domestic policy and the role of Arab representatives may differ considerably. Until those negotiations produce a workable majority, the election will remain unresolved in political terms, even after the counting process establishes the final seat distribution.

The ballot has delivered no immediate resolution to Israel’s leadership question. Instead, it has opened another contest over coalition-building, political legitimacy and the direction of the country. The decisive battle will now move from the polling stations to negotiations in the Knesset, where the ability to assemble a durable parliamentary majority—not merely to lead the party standings—will determine who governs Israel next.