SUPER EL NIÑO COULD BRING 451,000 EXCESS HEAT DEATHS AND WIDESPREAD WEATHER DISRUPTION

September 24, 2026

BRUSSELS: A developing El Niño event in the Pacific could become one of the strongest on record, bringing heightened risks of extreme heat, droughts, floods, wildfires and crop losses across several parts of the world. The World Meteorological Organization expects the event to reach peak intensity by early 2027.

A Climate Impact Lab assessment from the University of Chicago projects that the additional heat associated with the event could cause about 451,000 excess deaths from June 2026 through February 2027. The researchers estimate that the number of extremely hot days could rise substantially compared with normal years, with vulnerable regions expected to face the greatest risks.

The developing El Niño is also expected to disrupt rainfall patterns, producing drought in some regions and excessive rainfall and flooding in others. Southern Africa, parts of Central America and Australia face heightened risks of dryness, while several areas of South America and Central Asia could experience heavier rainfall. Crop production and hydropower generation could also be affected.

India is among the countries identified as vulnerable to the heat impacts. The Climate Impact Lab estimates about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India over the projected period, although the researchers emphasise that these are projections rather than observed fatalities. Emergency measures such as heat warnings, cooling facilities and protections for outdoor workers could reduce the projected toll.