SUPERCHARGED EL NIÑO SET TO PEAK THIS YEAR, EXTEND GLOBAL WEATHER DISRUPTION INTO 2027

October 8, 2026

El Niño is expected to intensify further before reaching its peak in December and is now almost certain to continue until February 2027, the World Meteorological Organisation has warned, raising the prospect of prolonged disruptions to weather patterns across the world.

The WMO said sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach a record 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal between October and December. The projected anomaly would substantially exceed the previous record of 2.6 degrees Celsius recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.

According to the UN weather agency, there is a near-100 per cent likelihood that the current El Niño will persist through February 2027. The organisation said the phenomenon could rank among the strongest El Niño events recorded since monitoring began in 1950.

El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle and has consequences far beyond the tropical Pacific. It generally pushes global temperatures higher and alters rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought in some regions while bringing excessive rainfall and flooding to others.

The unusually warm Pacific Ocean is providing a large reservoir of heat that can be released into the atmosphere as the phenomenon strengthens. The WMO has warned that this could contribute to exceptionally high global temperatures during the coming months and into 2027.

Global temperatures are already at historically high levels. August recorded a mean global temperature of 16.96 degrees Celsius, tying with July 2023 as the hottest month on record.

The strengthening El Niño is therefore expected to remain a major driver of global weather conditions through the coming winter, with potentially significant consequences for agriculture, water supplies, ecosystems and communities exposed to extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall.